Risk evaluation of dam construction projects using PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis

Due to the strategic nature of water supply, dam construction projects are very important and at the same time costly projects. Various project-related risks are important factors affecting the economic viability of construction projects. Dam construction projects have a high risk among construction projects due to the need to spend a lot of time and money, as well as the appropriate quality and sometimes complex spatial conditions of the construction site. This research identifies and determines the importance of risks and their ranking in dam construction projects, using PROMETHEE multi-criteria decision-making method and GAIA analysis. To evaluate project risk, firstly, it is necessary to identify the types of risks in projects. Risks have been extracted using data from earlier researches as well as interviews with experts in the field of dam construction. The final selection of risks has been done by screening through fuzzy Delphi method. Then the ranking of risks and their impact on the project is determined using the PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis. The results represented that exchange rate change, sanctions, geotechnical conditions, overpass and dam failure are the most important risks in dam construction projects. The results also indicated that the use of the PROMETHEE method and GAIA analysis can accurately rank the risk of dam projects and other construction projects.