Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes in the Gorganrood Watershed Using Metrics and Land Change Processes

The present study aimed to investigate and predict the changes in metrics and Landscape change processes in the Gorganrood watershed in Golestan province.

First, land cover maps were prepared in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Then predict land cover changes for future conditions, under two scenarios (1) continuation of the current trend of change for 2040 and (2) land cover changes for 2040 based on the ecological potential of the land, using land change modeling. Metrics and processes of land change in the studied years and scenarios were extracted using Fragstats software and their changes were analyzed during the study period (1990 to 2020). According to the results obtained during the study period, deforestation (279.53km2), reduction of rangeland lands (542.598km2), agricultural development (413 km2), and development of residential areas (133.81km2) have occurred in the Gorganrood watershed.

According to the predicted land cover for 2040 under two management scenarios, the area of ​​forest, agriculture, and rangeland in the first scenario (based on the current trend of change) with a change of -58.37, 35.8, 8.28 km2 to 1364.98, 2396.09 and 3481.18km2 will be reached. Meanwhile, in the second scenario (based on ecological potential), the area of ​​forest, agriculture, and rangeland changed by 4.27, -100.86, and 96.58 km2 to 1427.54, 2258.55 and 3567.49km2 will receive.

Increasing and decreasing the number of patches in human and natural uses, respectively, indicate the destructive trend of the landscape during the research period. Forest degradation, rangeland segregation and creation processes in agriculture and residential areas have occurred during the 30-year research period in the Gorganrood watershed.