Factors Affecting the Forecast of Stock Returns using Delphi-Fuzzy Knowledge Analysis and Technique

The trend of stock market movements and changes is a window for future economic behavior because it reflects investors' expectations of future economic conditions. The main purpose of this study was to identify and rank the factors affecting the forecast of stock returns in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The present research raises two general questions. The first question is related to the factors affecting the forecast of companies' stock returns. The second question deals with the method of prioritizing effective factors and the importance assigned to each factor? Based on the analysis of the field of knowledge, microeconomic factors were identified and based on a survey of experts and Delphi-fuzzy technique, the importance of the identified factors was assessed and refined. According to the results, among the main factors affecting the forecast of stock returns of companies, the priority factors of dividend to price, price-to-profit ratio, price-to-profit adjustment ratio, profit growth ratio, risk-free return, return on distribution, fluctuation range yield, Pearson skewness coefficient, standard skewness coefficient, elongation coefficient, dividend ratio and average return deviation play an important role in the order mentioned.