Sensitivity analysis and study of change of irrigation system on Qazvin Plain aquifer using GMS software

The decrease in rainfall, the increase in drought and the development of agriculture in recent years have led to an increase in the consumption of underground water and an increasing decline in water levels. In this study, using version 10 of GMS software, the condition of Qazvin Plain aquifer was modeled in two stable states for October 2017 and unstable from October 2017 to September 2018. The sensitivity analysis of the model was performed with respect to the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield, and these parameters were determined after calibration and validation of the model. The sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to the two mentioned parameters shows that the model is more sensitive to changes in hydraulic conductivity compared to changes in specific yield. The root mean square error in stable and unstable state was 0.84 and 1.06 m, respectively, and the absolute mean error was 0.66 and 0.75 m, respectively, which shows the high accuracy of the model simulation. The average value of hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer area was estimated as 14.06 m/day and specific drainage was 0.064. Then the underground water level in 6 scenarios of changing the irrigation systems (maintaining the existing situation, increasing the irrigation level under pressure, changing the systems to surface, changing the systems to rain, changing the systems to drip and irrigation with 100% efficiency) was simulated. The results showed that assuming that the underground water extraction is constant, in the surface irrigation scenario, the underground water level will be at its highest level with 30% return water and in drip irrigation conditions at its lowest level with 3.6% return water.