Sociological and Cognitive Security Analysis of Future Environmental Disturbances Based on Optimal Warning Obligations (Focusing on the Cause of the Unrest in 96 and 98)

The lack of proper warning measures to prevent potential social, political and security phenomena from becoming an impactful event, the infrastructure for the development of security faces serious challenges. Events in the years of 96 and 98 showed a change in the approach of the enemies of the Islamic system in the expansion of conflict areas and gathering centers and increased the amount of damages. Considering the current conditions of the society and the existence of economic problems, the increase in the inflation rate, corona virus and the subsequent increase in unemployment, the intensification of dissatisfaction, the surfing of anti-revolutionary elements, the occurrence of disturbances in the future environment is likely and the necessary measures must be taken to prevent the repetition of bitter events. The concern of the researcher is what, why and how the phenomenon is discussed in the future environment. In this research, using the data mining technique and interview tool, while examining some past researches, in order to answer the question, “Which is the sociological and cognitive security analysis of future environmental unrest based on the optimal warning measures?” was taken that after the findings, it was concluded that the indicators related to the “sociological” dimension have a higher position than the “security-cognitive” dimension in the field of analyzing possible future disturbances, so that 62% of the categories extracted from the interview is related to this dimension. Also, according to the assessment, in the “sociological” dimension, the highest impact on the occurrence of possible disturbances in the future environment, related to the three indicators “feeling of injustice and discrimination (basic economy)”; “relative deprivation (social position)”; “marginalization” and in the dimension of “cognitive security” related to “the enemy’s use of religious and economic faults”; “surfing” and “flow management”.