Investigating factors affecting the safety of the Damghan-Jandagh transportation system

Accidents are one of the biggest public health problems in the world. Road safety is one of the main concerns of the country's transportation industry, and now a lot of money is being spent to curb the unbridled trend of road accidents and fatalities. In this research, various factors affecting the safety of the Damghan-Jandagh transportation axis located in Semnan province for the years 2017-2019 were investigated. With the help of Minitab statistical software, factors of geometric parameters of accidents, age of people, education of accident victims and seasons of accidents were investigated. Also, with the help of Easyfit software, the best statistical distribution of accident data in the years 2017 to 2019 was investigated. Next, with the help of MLP model, the accidents of this axis were modeled. The results showed that among the factors of geometric parameters, poor pavement is the main cause of accidents in this axis. Also, the most accidents have occurred in the April season. The highest rate of people who had an accident in this axis were those under the diploma and aged 41 to 50 years. The results of goodness of fit test showed that Generalized Pareto distribution for 2017 and 2019 and Gumbel distribution for 2018 are the best distributions. The MLP model had a relatively good performance in modeling, and in the testing stage, the values of R2, MAE and RMSE were 0.84, 1.91 and 2.65, respectively. Finally, the field visit of this axis showed that there are many problems and shortcomings that need to be fixed.