The prediction distribution of mangrove crab Macrophthalmus (Macrophthalmus) sulcatus (H. Milne Edwards, 1852) in response to global warming

Crabs family Macrophthalmidae play the importanat ecological role in food web of mangroves. In this study, using MaxEnt modeling technique, recent and future distributions of the crab M. sulcatus were modelled. The records on species distribution were obtained from the open-access databases, literatures and collections of museums. Depth and sea surface temperature (SST) were the most important drivers of distribution of mangrove crab. In present model, the most suitable environments were depths of less than 32.34 m, mean SST 27.82°C, salinity 40.11-44.02 (ppm), current velocity of 0.04m-1, and in future models, coastal area with depth less 44.33 m, SST between 28.86°C, salinity 38.77 (ppm), and current velocity between 0.01m-1. Future models showed that distribution of species will be contracted in response to climate change and it will be observed the expanding the low suitable environments from 23.52 to 27.27 percent and the decresing median suitable environments from 38.23 to 33.33 percent in future. In summary, the outputs of MaxEnt model present the vulnerability of mangrove crabs to climate change in future, in regards to the contraction of future distribtion and how they may response to change in climatic conditions through the contraction their distribution .