Regression estimation of economic model of crime (number of homicides) according to the degree of development of countries: A panel approach (With a special look at Iran)

Research in the developmental dimension (degree of development of countries) and macroeconomics has dealt with the economic context of crime (number of homicides). The aim is to specify the economic model (number of homicides) and estimate its regression between countries for selected countries and Iran.

The model is experimental and the meta-analysis method is used. It is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-correlational research in terms of data collection and analysis. The statistical population consists of all countries in the world, the sample size is 24 countries and in it the variables of human development degree were used as an index of development, inflation rate, consumer price index, unemployment rate and urban population percentage and were estimated by balanced data panel technique. Data were extracted from the Human Development Report of the United Nations, the World Bank and the World Health Organization during the period 1990-2018.

The initial estimation of the model showed that the coefficient of variable percentage of urban population in 24 selected countries is meaningless and the model specification test showed that it is a disturbing variable, so it was removed from the model and the model was estimated again.

The degree of development has a negative and significant effect on the number of homicides in countries, the variables of inflation rate and unemployment rate have a positive and significant effect on the number of homicides. Comparison of the results showed that the coefficient of variable degree of development in Iran is 13 times higher than the group of selected countries and the unemployment rate is higher but the inflation rate is lower. Practical suggestion: Allow the law enforcement force to increase its mission and extensive activities in detecting and clearing corruption gangs in the government.