The effects of climate change and climate variability on economic surplus of producers and consumers in the agricultural sector of Hamadan– Bahar plain

The occurrence of climate change and variability, through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the profitability of production in this sector and the share of food in consumer income. Therefore, social surpluses would fluctuate with physical and economic access to food. Accordingly, to make effective policies to adapt to new climatic conditions, accurate estimates of the welfare changes that will occur as a result of climatic events are needed. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, and food security in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated. The results showed that with the combined effect of climate change and variability, along with a 44% increase in agricultural consumption from the aquifer of this plain during the 20-year planning period, the present value of consumer and producer surplus and also, total economic welfare in the region's agricultural sector would decrease by 27%, increase by 16% and decrease by 4% compared to the baseline conditions, respectively. Therefore, it will be inevitable to adopt strategies to adapt to this phenomenon to mitigate its negative effects on food security in the region.