Increasing Divorce or Stagnation of Marriage? A Reflection on the Trends in Marriage and Divorce in Iran during the Last 15 Years

This study has two complementary goals: first, to introduce and critique the conventional methods of estimating divorce indices in Iran and propose a new index. It also applied this new index for the last 15 years; second, to analyze the changes in marriage patterns using appropriate indicators. 

The study used secondary data from the national civil registration and the general population and housing census of the country. Different indicators were used to estimate and compare the trends of marriage and divorce. 

An alternative method of estimating divorce, which takes into account the divorce ratio as a subset of the actual married population, shows that divorce is not a major concern in Iran, contrary to popular belief. However, it also shows that divorce rates are likely to increase as the population of married women grows. Moreover, indicators such as the mean age at first marriage, the singleness ratio in age groups, the absolute singleness ratio and their relative changes suggest that delaying marriage and reducing its universality is a more serious issue than divorce in Iranian society. 

The crude measures are exaggerated the situation and trends of divorce. This may lead to the fear of marriage or condemnation of marriage in older age and, as a result, absolute celibacy. Therefore, social categories like divorce and marriage, which are related to one of the main institutions of society (family), should be approached with sensitivity and scientific rigor. Key Message: This research acknowledges that the stagnation of marriage is more problematic than the increase in divorce, without normalizing the latter. Therefore, it recommends to formulate practical policies aimed at removing obstacles to young people's marriage.