Development of a Dynamic Model of Bank Strategy in Uncertainty using the SD Approach

The present study has developed a dynamic model of bank strategy in uncertainty using the system dynamics approach. After examining the Iran's banking system and Detection of future uncertainties with the participation of policymakers of Saderat bank, a causal diagram of the banking system's performance in conditions of uncertainty was designed. The Dynamic accumulation and flow model was designed based on banking data and simulated over a 20-year horizon. After validation of the model, based on the results of sensitivity analysis, bank strategies and policies were extracted and analyzed in conditions of uncertainty. According to the research findings, four strategies of managing the bank's assets and expenses, attracting financial resources and profitability, empowering the bank's management and developing the banking infrastructure, as well as selected combinations were identified and simulated. As a result, the selected Strategy simulation is a combination of policies, show the best perfomance including: 1-three times increase in investment in banking infrastructure; 2- Creating special mechanisms for collection of receivables; 3- Managing a 5% reduction in bank costs through streamlining processes and empowering human resources, as well as monitoring the bank's costs and expenses. 4- Increasing 4 times the efficiency of the appropriate accreditation process for customers. Financial transparency reports and effective communication with key stakeholders were provided. 5- Twice the increase of depositors' trust and security by presenting financial transparency reports and effective communication with key stakeholders, which as a result of applying these strategies, improves the bank's profitability, increases receivables and reduces costs. We will be.