Provincial Differential in Premature Deaths Due to the Non-communicable Diseases in Iran, 2016-2019

Overall, the four categories of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (Cardiovascular disease (CVD), Cancer, Diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) contribute to over 80% of annual premature deaths, with more than 85% of these occurrences transpiring in low- and middle-income countries. This study seeks to assess the likelihood of premature mortality attributable to these diseases across the provinces of Iran.

Data on causes of death from 2016 to 2019 was extracted from the death registration system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. To assess the completeness of the death registration system on a provincial level, we employed a novel method introduced by Adair and Lopez.

From 2016 to 2019, non-communicable diseases, specifically the four primary diseases, constituted 68.98%, 69.44%, 69.17%, and 67.94% of all causes of death in Iran, respectively. During the same period, the probabilities of premature mortality attributed to major non-communicable diseases were 14.95%, 15.15%, 15.25%, and 16.63%, respectively. Notably, Golestan province exhibited the highest probability of premature death.

The percentage of probability of death resulting from non-communicable diseases is a crucial indicator for the prevention and control of NCDs at both the international and national levels. This indicator requires ongoing monitoring to effectively address the issue. Given the diverse socioeconomic and epidemiological circumstances across the provinces of Iran, acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the current situation regarding these diseases becomes imperative. Such knowledge facilitates the development of well-informed planning and policy-making strategies aimed at managing the increasing burden of NCDs and ensuring equitable healthcare provision.