Investigating the Relationship between Risks and Business Cycles in the Iranian Economy during the Period 2009-2011 Using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model

Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators are influential in creating business cycles, none of which alone creates business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, financial, political and international risks with the economic business cycles of Iran during the period 2001-2009. To achieve this goal, the long-run trend will be separated from the cyclical GDP trend using the Hadrick-Prescott filter, and the data will be analyzed using the Structural Vector Distribution (SVAR) model. According to the results, the average of one business cycle in the Iranian economy is equal to 10 seasons, which are equal to 5.45 and 5 seasons for the recession and boom period, respectively. Economic risk of -0.354 percentage has immediate effects on the business cycles of the Iranian economy, which for financial risk, international risk and political risk, the figures show -0.315, -0.0031 and 0.0048 percentage, respectively. According to the Granger causality test, the two variables of economic risk and financial risk are the cause of business cycles in the Iranian economy, while political and international risks are not the cause of business cycles. Economic risks in the first period with an impact of about 6% have the most explanatory effect in creating business cycles of GDP, after which financial risk has the greatest impact on business cycles, on the other hand, political risks among the studied risks have the least impact on cycles.