Geopolitical analysis of the components of convergence and divergence in the Islamic world

Geographical regions have moved toward convergence and cooperation based on common mental concepts and with regard to common structures and functions, and have been able to move their region toward sustainable development and security. One of the sensitive and strategic areas in the equations of the structure of the power pyramid of the Islamic world. Despite the mental and objective similarities in the Islamic world to create a coherent regional organization based on building power, this region is considered one of the most tense regions in the world. The purpose of this research is to examine how the Islamic world can be imagined under the influence of domestic and international conditions in the next decade. In this research, Peter Schwartz's future research approach and scenario writing method have been used. The findings of the research have shown that by recognizing multiple drivers in objective and subjective dimensions on a regional and global scale, two uncertainties regarding the future of power building in the Islamic world in the next decade were identified, which include increasing or decreasing the involvement of extra-regional powers in Islamic world and also the increase or decrease of ethnic and religious challenges in the Islamic world. Three scenarios have been designed based on these uncertainties, which include the convergence of power construction in the next decade in the Islamic world, further divergence, and maintaining the status quo. The results of the research show that by reducing the involvement of extra-regional powers and reducing ethnic and religious challenges, the Islamic world will move towards convergence. If the involvement of extra-regional powers increases and ethnic-religious challenges increase, the Islamic world will go towards further divergence. Also, if the involvement of extra-regional powers decreases and the ethno-religious challenges increase, we will witness the continuation of the existing situation.