Identifying the Key Drivers Affecting Tourism Development with the Foresight Approach (Case study: Golden Tourism Triangle of Isfahan, Fars, Yazd)

Tourism activity greatly affects the economies of different countries and in this regard, it is important to identify the factors affecting tourism development. In the present study, due to the potential that the golden triangle of tourism in Isfahan, Fars and Yazd has for tourism development, it has been selected as a case study to identify the key indicators affecting its tourism development with a future research approach.

Methodology/approach: 

The present study is an applied research that has been done by using library studies, interviews and questionnaires with experts and professionals familiar with the topics of tourism and futures research and with the help of Micmac software. For this purpose, first 33 primary factors affecting tourism development were identified using library studies and interviews with experts, and then by forming a matrix of cross-effects and using the opinions of respondents and using Micmac software, the key drivers affecting tourism development were identified. Respondents were purposefully selected and theoretical saturation was formed in sample "14".

The research findings indicate that 11 factors are "macro government policies", "interaction of institutions", "provincial management style", "specialized management", "branding and motivation of travel", "natural attractions", "historical monuments and cultural heritage" "Handicrafts and Indigenous", "Tourism Culture", "Transportation Infrastructure" and "Tourism Infrastructure and Services" are the key drivers of tourism development in the three golden triangle of tourism.

The result of the research indicates that the mentioned drivers can be divided into two categories: "organizational and managerial" and "branding" and planning to develop and improve their performance can make a significant contribution to the development of tourism in these three provinces.

Originality/value:

 Considering the memorandum of understanding of the tourism golden triangle project between the provinces of Isfahan, Fars and Yazd and the lack of investigation of the drivers effective on the tourism development of these three provinces in the previous researches, in this respect, the current research is innovative which has been authenticated by interviewing experts related to the subject.