Detection and simulation of land use changes in the new city of Pardis with Landscape Metrics by 2040

Landscape status is one of the key factors in choosing a place of residence, activity and people's satisfaction. Considering the negative effects of inappropriate land use and land use change, knowledge and understanding of the process of variability is essential in assessing the environmental effects of development in order to plan and sustainably manage the land.

This article has tried to study the land cover changes of the new campus city using the Landscape Measurement Method method during the years 2020-2000 and to detect and simulate these changes for the year 2040.

This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of applied targeting and its method. The method of data collection is field and using satellite image reference sites. In the present study, Landsat TM and OLI satellite images were used to study spatial changes (land use) created by the Markov chain model and ca Markov automated cells, Arc / Gis, Envi 5.3 and Fragstats 2.4 software.

Geographical area of research: 

The scope of this research is the new campus city based on the political divisions of 2016.

The results of forecasting changes in 2040 show that the barren areas of the new campus city compared to 2020 have a significant reduction of nearly 130 hectares. Man-made areas in 2040 will also increase by almost %5 compared to 2020, and this amount will reach 1113 hectares, which is an increase of approximately 75 hectares compared to 2020.