Evaluation and ranking of market risk in infrastructure projects using integrated DEA/AHP technique

 Investment in projects is one of the factors of economic growth and sustainable development in countries. Since investors are usually exposed to different risks and due to the importance of risk in selecting projects, it has always been focused on the optimization of project selection and optimization techniques to reduce risks. The main risks associated with investment projects are divided into market and political risk groups, which can lead to decrease in productivity and increased cost in a capital project .Market risk consists of four risk factors: commercial risk, project progress risk, vector gain risk and construction risk. The aim of this paper is evaluation and ranking of market risks in selecting different types of capital projects based on mathematical programming model with DEA / AHP combined technique so that according to the relative weights, the overall impact of market risk on project prioritization is determined. After the implementation of the proposed algorithm, the risk of advancing the first priority, risk of construction / completion of second priority, risk taking and commercial risk were placed third and fourth priority so that investors can identify and reduce their effects in projects.