The Effect of Economic, Social, and Natural Factors on the Efficiency of Iran's Tourism Industry

Nowadays, Tourism plays an important role in the development of many countries including developing countries, such as Iran which has a high capability in this sector. This study examines the economic (GDP per capita and Inflation), social (security and population), and natural factors (total hours of sunshine, total rainfall, natural attractions) on the efficiency of Iran's tourism industry. The data research included statistics and information from 31 provinces of Iran during the years 2011 to 2017 and the analysis technique of fuzzy data envelopment was utilized to calculate the efficiency of the tourism industry; also, the stochastic Tobit panel model was applied to investigate the economic, social and natural factors. The results of fuzzy efficiency in this study illustrated that during 7 years, only four provinces - Ardabil, Tehran, Kohkiluyeh, Boyer-Ahmad, and Gilan- were efficient each year. Moreover, the results showed that during the period of study, among the factors affecting performance, the variables of natural attractions, total rainfall, GDP per capita, inflation, and security have affected the efficiency of Iran's tourism industry. Among these variables, the natural attraction variable had a higher marginal effect than the other variables. Therefore, according to the results, it is suggested that more efforts be made to identify and rehabilitate natural resources and provide more facilities to preserve pristine tourist areas.