Future projection of climatic elements over Yazd province using RCP scenarios

 The aim of this research is the future projection of climatic elements over the northwest Yazd province using RCP scenarios.

 This study uses simulating the climate variables, namely, precipitation and average temperature of Yazd province in the baseline period (2001-2020), by using the LARS-WG6.0 model and four models of CMIP5, for three possible emission scenarios (such as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). By introducing the best model, it uses downscaling the climate variables for the future 2026-2055 and 2071- 2100.

 According to the results, BCC-CSM1-1 and NorESM1-M models are introduced as the best models in projecting the mentioned variables with low error and acceptable NRMSE. The most significant increase in the temperature variable will occur in the period 2100-2071 and RCP8.5, so the temperature in the NorESM1-M model increases from 1.13 to 3.93 degrees Celsius in scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. The amount of rainfall in 2071-2100 will decrease compared to 2055-2026, and in some stations, it will increase or decrease compared to the average of the base period.

 In future periods, the temperature will increase in the region and the greatest increase in RCP8.5. Precipitation in the future fluctuates so that it will have the most remarkable changes in RCP2.6.

Innovation:

 In this research, for future projection of climatic elements over the northwest Yazd province using GCM-CMIP5 models and RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). After analyzing the error statistics, we chose BCC-CSM1-1 and NorESM1-M models to project future temperature and rainfall and better understand the region's climate. Therefore, the results of this study can be applied to regional planning, including meteorology, water resource management, and combating desertification.