Investigation of The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Saffron Land Rent in Khorasan Razavi Province

This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province. To achieve this goal, relevant data and statistics were gathered from the National Meteorological Organization and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Khorasan Razavi province between 2011-2020. In doing so, panel data of the Ricardian technique was employed. The net present value of land rent was subsequently calculated. Considering three climate change scenarios, A1, B1, and AB (pessimistic, optimistic, and intermediate) till 2100 of IPCC, the ultimate effect of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province was predicted. The results indicated that all of the cities in Khorasan Razavi province had positive saffron land rents throughout the study period. Torbat-e-Jam had the highest value of saffron land rent with 535,079,456 Tomans, while Kashmar and Roshtkhar had the lowest value with 160,079,456 Tomans. Moreover, the trend of changes in land rents is positive in some cities and negative in others. Bajestan, Torbat-e-Jam, Jooybar, and Khoshab have an increasing trend in the value of saffron land rent. In addition, the trend of land rent in Bakharz, Taybad, Bardaskan, Torbat Heydariyeh, Joghatai, Chenaran, Khalilabad, and Khaf is decreasing. Based on a fixed effects model, the average annual temperature, cumulative precipitation, and maximum average temperature have a positive and significant effect. In contrast, the interactive effect of temperature, precipitation and minimum average temperature negatively and significantly affect saffron land rents. Considering climate scenarios until 2025, land rent will decrease by 11.0% per hectare. Moreover, changes in land rent caused by temperature and precipitation climate scenarios until 2100 are estimated to be 326.0%. Considering the average land rent and the total saffron cultivation area in Khorasan Razavi province, we will have a decrease of 7.93 billion Tomans in land rent. Given the inevitability of climate change, evaluating its effects can be effective in managing this phenomenon.