Forecasting Inundation Zone Caused by Climate Change in Mangrove Forests

In recent years, mangrove ecosystems have been threatened by effects of global climate change, in addition to human destructions. One of the most important impacts caused by climate change on mangroves, is the global sea- level rise and consequently, inundation of parts of coastal zone. Rising sea- level causes mangrove retreat in many areas. However, in some regions, human settlements and coastal structures and facilities, act as limiting factors. In this study, using the two scenarios of the lowest and highest mean sea level rise over the period of 2046-2065, according to IPCC report and the results of internal studies, inundation zones caused by sea level rise in the two protected areas of Harra in Bandar Khamir and Harra Tiab and Minab was determined. Results demonstrated that if the sea level rises, the lowest and highest levels of inundation, will be 1000 and 2000 hectares respectively in Harra protected area, and about 3500 and 7000 hectares, respectively in the protected area of Tiab and Minab. Results of land cover and land use showed that, most of the hinterland, is related to poor rangeland cover and empty lands and according to regional and global predictions in sea- level rise, there is currently no barrier for mangrove migration into hinterland, but in next few years and in the future plans, land use changes need to be addressed to make more appropriate management decisions to protect these valuable ecosystems.