Identification and Prioritization of Significant Factors in Traffic Casualties of Shiraz-Kazerun Road During the Spring of 2018: An Expert Panel Consensus

Iran has a uniquely catastrophic status for road traffic injury and fatality. Fars province has had the highest number of casualties among the other provinces in recent 5 years. For instance, there are 966 road accident fatalities in 2018. Shiraz-Kazerun road is the deadliest one in Fars province. So, to help the policymakers toward better planning, this study was established to identify and prioritize the significant factors in traffic casualties of the Shiraz- Kazerun road during the spring of 2018 from the experts’ point of view.

This study was conducted using a three-phase mixed method. The first step was to identify the effective factors in road traffic fatalities using available resources. In the second step, the identified factors were arranged in the form of a checklist and were provided to a team of experts. The important factors were distinguished according to local priorities, availability of data, and the contribution of each factor to the deaths of people. The consensus was considered higher than 75% agreement by experts on each identified factor. In the end, these factors were ranked according to experts’ views in the form of a seven-point Likert scale. Data were analyzed using Excel software and mean parameter.

According to panel consensus, 33 out of 41 effective factors were identified in the road traffic accident which were divided into five different categories: driver-pedestrian-passenger, vehicle and equipment, physical environment, non-physical environment, and health services. After analyzing the data, factors of age, seat belts, traffic lanes, police monitoring, and accessibility of the accident scene had the highest values. 

This study specifies the need for a systematic and responsive process to evaluate, report, and prioritize the factors affecting road traffic fatalities scientifically. Considering the limitation of resources, policymakers can emphasize more effective factors like fastening seat belts to reduce road traffic accident impacts.