Identifying key forces affecting Urban Livability for Children with a foresight approach (Case study: District 3 of Tabriz)

With the expansion of urbanization on the one hand and the increase in population on the other, children are being ignored in modern urban developments and the need to pay more attention to them in cities is felt. To this end, urban spaces that can meet tangible needs such as access to utilities, housing, transportation and etc and intangible needs such as a sense of belonging, security and etc are essential for children This is called urban livability. Increasing the livability of cities is directly related to increasing the attractiveness of urban environments for citizens and can itself provide the basis for sustainable urban development. It is important to pay attention to children because they are future citizens of society and they create the link between the past and the future generations. The present study, by using futures study knowledge, identified key forces in the future of children's livability. In the first phase, using the Delphi method, we first identified some of the variables affecting the future status of urban living for children, Then we extracted 47 variables that were approved by experts and received the highest score. We divided these 47 variables into four environmental, physical, social, and economic groups. Then, using structural analysis method and creating a 47 * 47 matrix, these variables were compared using MICMAC software. Finally, 7 key forces were extracted that play the most important role in the future status of children's urban livability.