Ten-Year Cardiovascular Disease Risk Evaluation in PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study: A Cross-Sectional Study

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most prevalent diseases worldwide including in the Asian population. CVD risk assessment provides support for policymakers for prevention strategies. This research aimed to estimate the 10-year CVD risk and evaluate the agreement between three risk scores.

A descriptive study was conducted based on 9398 subjects aged 40–70 years from 10520 PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS) participants in Guilan, Iran. Baseline demographic data, comorbidities, and CVD variables were derived from cohort records. The 10-year CVD risk events for every individual were calculated using three risk score models including the American College of Cardiovascular / American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) tool, Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and World Health Organization (WHO) chart. The agreement between the CVD risk scores was evaluated using the kappa statistics.

The proportion of high-risk people based on WHO, FRS, and ACC/AHA was 17.5%, 16.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. WHO risk score can find the highest frequency of females with high CVD risk scores. The best agreement was observed between FRS and ACC/AHA (κw=0.672, complete agreement=82.3%). Agreement between the WHO and ACC/AHA as well as WHO and FRS was reported as κw=0.351 and κw=0.357, respectively.

WHO risk chart found the greatest number of people as the high-risk category. A substantial agreement was observed between FRS and ACC/AHA.