Long-Run and Short-Run Income Inequality Spatial Effects on Total Factor Productivity: Iran’s Provinces Evidence

The purpose of this article is to estimate the short-run and long-run income inequality effects on the industrial total factor productivity in the provinces of Iran. For this purpose, panel data of 31 provinces of Iran are used for the period of 2011-2019. First, Malmquist’s total productivity index was estimated by data envelopment analysis. Then, the long-run and short-run effects of income inequality on TFP were evaluated by static and dynamic spatial econometric models. The findings show that the negative effect of income inequality on total productivity is locally confirmed in the long-run, but its spatial spillover effects are not sustainable. According to the results of the long-run total effect, inequality has a negative and significant effect on the industrial total productivity in the long-run. In the short-run, in the spatial lagged model (SAR), the inequality local effects on TFP are negative and significant, but in the spatial durbin model (SDM), this effect is negative and insignificant. The short-run spatial spillover and total effects of income inequality on industrial total productivity are negative and significant in the spatial lagged model, but positive and insignificant in the spatial durbin model. In sum, according to the short-run and long-run results, the increase in income inequality in Iran’s provinces has a negative and significant effect on TFP in the long-run.