Predicting the future status of the banking industry in Iran based on the future research approach

The strategic importance of the banking industry in the development of the country has made proper planning and policy making in this industry have a significant impact on the development of other aspects of the country. The research is done on the importance of this issue to identify the most important and possible scenarios facing the banking industry (agricultural bank). The research community of this study was estimated at 30 people, including Iranian banking and information technology experts with future research and strategic knowledge. Snowball sampling was used; 10 experts and experts from the banking, information technology and economic fields were asked to answer the questionnaire questions carefully.
In this study, the most important key factors affecting the future of this industry were selected by fuzzy hierarchical analysis and then by the matrix analysis the intersecting effect of each of these factors on the banking industry was identified and subsequently used the interplay analysis method for scenariography. The results identified optimistic scenarios for the bank, the transformation of the banking industry, the inflationary and the sanctions conditions. Given these four scenarios, it was possible to implement strategic and operational planning for the bank based on uncertainty analysis for each of the mentioned scenarios.