Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of non-native Stone moroko fish (Pseudorasbora parva) in the rivers of the southern basin of the Caspian Sea

The reduction of biodiversity and its adverse effects on plant and animal species is one of the consequences of global warming.  The wide spread of non-native species has inherent negative effects on other species and ecosystems and may pose a double and more serious threat to biodiversity in the future due to climate change. Knowing the future distribution of these species can be used for biodiversity conservation. In the current study, the distribution of non-native stone moroko fish was predicted under two optimistic and pessimistic (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080 by the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the performance of the model in predicting species distribution was excellent (0.988) based on the Area Under the Curve (AUC) criterion. In addition, it is predicted that the distribution of the species is likely to increase significantly (more than 100%) in all years and optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Therefore, managers and decision-makers should consider the significant expansion of this species in the future as well as, its potential effects on biodiversity and take necessary and appropriate management actions.