Integrating FMEA and BWM Methods to Evaluate and Prioritize Risks with Greater Differentiation (A Case Study of Operational Risks of Electricity Distribution Network)

One of the most important factors of socio-economic development in any country is the quality of electricity sources. Considering the sensitivity of electronic devices and the dependence of most activities on electricity, providing sustainable energy in the urban system is very important. Therefore, a comprehensive view of the factors causing disturbances in the electricity distribution network is very valuable in order to prevent any electricity losses. The goal of the current research is to identify, evaluate and prioritize operational risks in the aerial electricity distribution network. Any operational risk is a potential cause of the incident that leads to an unplanned outage. In this study, by reviewing the research literature, incidents recorded in the electricity distribution network incident registration system (known as the 121 system), and conducting interviews, 21 operational risk cases have been listed and approved by experts. On the other hand, to solve the limitations of the FMEA method, by combining the BWM method and using the knowledge of experts (completion of the questionnaire), evaluation and prioritization were done with more differentiation. The results showed that from the point of view of experts, the intensity index is critical (0.475). Also, three operational risks with high priority in the electricity distribution network of Yazd province include; Failure in concrete foundations, the impact of foreign objects, and failure in transformers. Statistics emphasize that high-priority risks are responsible for 27% of unplanned outages in the last ten years. Operators and managers of electricity distribution companies can consider high-priority risks and provide solutions to reduce, eliminate or transfer risks. In this case, in addition to minimizing unplanned outages in the network and selling more electricity, customer satisfaction is achieved.