Dynamics of Tobacco Use, Scenarios, and Control Policies

A review of the tobacco control initiatives indicates that the evolution of tobacco control and public health into complex interconnected systems requires approaches and methodologies based on the dynamic nature of this environment. This study attempts to view tobacco control policies from the perspective of systemic dynamics.

The research methodology is based on the stages of system dynamics.

Through the model’s analysis, two primary smoking control policies are proposed: First, a strategy focused on reducing consumption through enhanced awareness and ongoing monitoring via an active learning program, and second, enhancing the smoking cessation rate by establishing dedicated clinics and utilizing cultural approaches that condemn smoking.

Using either a system dynamics approach or qualitative and descriptive methods, tobacco studies reveal no quantitative decision support system to measure the effectiveness of the policies guiding the development of this system. This gap inhibits the identification of the root cause of the problem and improves the behavior of essential variables with dynamic hypotheses. A fundamental issue in the development of any model is access to valuable and accurate data, a resource not readily and transparently available in Iran.