The Effect of Oil Shocks on Political, Financial and Economic Instability in Iran's Economy

One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the framework of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model in the period of 1379:4-1398. The results of the impulse response functions show that the positive oil price shock has led to an increase in the political risk index in the short term, which was in accordance with theoretical expectations. Also, the positive shock of the total demand has followed the positive reaction of the risk index and has led to the decrease of risk. Sanctions have recorded the greatest effect on political risk. The positive shock of oil supply and total demand has led to a significant reduction in financial risk. The economic risk also shows a significant reaction to the total demand shock and the sanctions shock, as a result of which the risk increases.The results of variance decomposition show that among the three risks (oil price, oil supply, and oil demand), oil shocks have the greatest impact on financial, political, and economic risks, respectively. Financial and economic risk had the greatest effect from the total demand shock and political risk from the oil price shock.