Dams Risk Assessment and Their Prioritization Using DEMATEL-ANP Combined Method

Even though dams have many social benefits, it also has caused social, economic, environmental and technical management risks along time. Due to the fact that the dam is considered a great phenomenon in nature, its effects on the environment are extensive. One of the issues that must be investigated during the operation of dams is the negative environmental effects in the dam construction area. The negative environmental effects of dams are including sedimentation in the dam's reservoir and lake, intensification of erosion in the downstream lands, inundation of agricultural lands due to rise of the underground water level. The effects of the mentioned risks for dam construction may be irreparable. The aim of this study is evaluating the effects of social, economic, technical management and environmental risks affected by the construction of dams on the watershed. Decisions related to the management of these dams require recognize the dangers and risks in the dam and prioritize them. Dam construction projects are more risky than other projects due to the high credits and time spent on their construction. Using multi-criteria decision-making methods is a suitable tool for evaluating different risks in these dams. In this study, the combined DEMATEL-ANP method is used to identify the relationships between risk criteria and sub-criteria and prioritize them. So, four criteria and 42 sub-criteria were determined to evaluate different risks in Mamloo, Taleghan and Lar dams and the network relationships between them were determined. The results show that the employment sub-criterion in economic criterion with a weight of 0.0720 has the highest risk and the land acquisition sub-criterion in management technical criterion with a weight of 0.0029 has the lowest risk compared to all sub-criteria.