Investigating and prioritizing factors affecting the adaptation of the agricultural sector to water scarcity (Case Study: Shirkoh village, Guilan province)

Water scarcity and drought have challenged the prosperity and development of the agricultural sector, food security and stability of rural settlements. In recent years, the reduction of Sefidroud river inflow to Guilan province, climate change and water demand increase have led to water scarcity in the rural areas and agricultural sector of this province. In the present study, the factors affecting the adaptation of the agriculture sector of Shirkoh village in Guilan province to water scarcity were investigated. In this regard, a comprehensive decision tree was designed with five main criteria and 37 sub-criteria. The results of the analysis of the opinions of 15 experts in the form of pairwise comparisons using the fuzzy hierarchical analysis approach showed that the main criterion of "technical knowledge of the user" with a relative weight of 33.1% is the most important in the adaptation of the agriculture sector of the sample village with water scarcity. Also, the "economic" and "income diversity" criteria are in the next position with relative weight of 25.4 and 19.3 percent, respectively. The three sub-criteria "Development of awareness and information of farmers in times of crisis", "Explanation of adaptation strategies according to the level and understanding of local people" and "Using the advanced irrigation system" that are related to the main criterion "Technical knowledge of the user" with a total relative weight of 44.7% have the greatest effect on the adaptation of the agriculture sector of the studied area. Also, two sub-criteria "Employment in various agricultural activities" and "Development of activities related to tourism" have more than 75% relative weight among the sub-criteria of “income diversity”. The findings of this research have provided a suitable platform for identifying strategies to adapt water scarcity in the agriculture sector of Shirkoh village and formulating a policy package.