An analysis of the cross-effects of the explanatory components of resilience and its future study in the old textures of cities (case study: Tabriz metropolis)

Urban resilience is the ability of a city and its subsystems to cope with a variety of hazards, adapt to critical situations, and self-recover and recover quickly. In order to achieve a resilient city, it is inevitable to study the impact and effectiveness of various components as well as the future resulting from the effects of these components. In this regard, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the effects (effectiveness/effectiveness) of the components explaining resilience and its future research in the old texture of Tabriz metropolis. Therefore, the research method is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of the nature of futurism with emphasis on analytical and exploratory approach. Also, the data analysis method was based on purposeful Delphi method (15 elites and managers in the field of crisis management) and the application of cross-impact analysis technique in Micmac software. Findings of the research by analyzing the 5 main components (economic, social, individual, managerial-institutional and physical-environmental) and 24 sub-components indicate that the most effective among the studied components on other components in order to develop resilience of the old texture of Tabriz the components of emphasis on the governance and participatory approach, the existence of interaction and cooperation between institutions and cultural context between institutions and social strata, and the most effective are related to the components of positive thinking about issues and sense of social responsibility in the face of crisis. The results also show that due to the current situation of old texture resilience and the lack of key and strategic components affecting the development of the system, the future of old Tabriz texture will be unstable in terms of resilience.