Identification of future scenarios of presence and activity The Takfiri-terrorist group of ISIS in the eastern borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The activity of Takfiri-terrorist groups of ISIS in the territory of the eastern borders of the country is one of the most important events that has received serious attention in recent years. Therefore, ensuring the security of the eastern borders is a very important concern, which has faced many uncertainties in the future due to the activities of ISIS. The purpose of this research is to identify the future scenarios of the presence and activity of the Takfiri-terrorist group ISIS in the eastern borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Intuitive logic approach (8-step Petershwartz method) has been used for scenario writing. Data collection tools included systematic review of sources, interviews with experts, expert panel and Delphi, and observation of ISIS actions, and to analyze the data, the opinions of 18 security-law enforcement experts were analyzed qualitatively until theoretical saturation was reached. Checked.

The drivers and different states of the two key uncertainties include the possibility of cooperation of other takfiri groups in the region with ISIS and the state of coordination of border residents in dealing with Tadwin group, which in the best situation of ISIS is not able to directly attack the eastern borders of the country and the border residents are aligned with each other. And they are in front of ISIS, and in the worst situation, with the cooperation of other Takfiri groups, they penetrate into the country from the eastern borders, and some border residents join this terrorist group.