Investigating Precipitation Changes and Meteorological Drought Characteristics with Climate Change Scenarios (Case Study: Sari-Qamish Sub-basin of Zarinehrood)

Drought is one of the most important problems that humanity is facing today with effects intensifying and causing many problems in different regions due to climate change and the gradual increase in global warming in recent years. Knowing this phenomenon and managing it correctly can reduce the damage caused by it to some extent. In this study, in order to quantify the rainfall changes in the region from the rainfall data of Bukan, Saqez and Takab stations and based on the Standardized Precipitation Meteorological Drought Index (SPI) in the basic statistical period (1959-2020) and the future period (2020-2100). The CanESM2 model was used under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results of the survey in the basic statistical period showed that the change trend of SPI values is decreasing. Also, the average decrease of monthly rainfall in the future statistical period under the RCP8.5 scenario in Takab, Bukan and Saqez stations is about 18, 18 and 23%, respectively, and the change trend of the SPI index under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is a significant decrease. And in the RCP2.6 scenario, it has an insignificant decrease. Obviously, with the current results and the lack of greenhouse gas management, more severe droughts will occur in the study area.