The Application of Futures Studies in Identifying and Analyzing Factors Affecting the Challenges of Damask Roses Cultivation Development in East Azerbaijan Province

In order to increase rural employment, a fundamental need for a deep study with the aim of identifying and analyzing components affecting challenges of Damask Roses cultivation development in East Azerbaijan province is obvious. Related literature review shows that no similar study has analyzed the challenges of Damask Roses cultivation development in the province with futures studies method. For this purpose, after validating the face validity of the research tool (a researcher-made questionnaire) using experts of the cultivation of roses in East Azerbaijan province, the components obtained from the Delphi study were completed and analyzed in the form of matrices and in the Micmac specialized software environment. The results showed effective components of Damask Roses cultivation development in the province included lack of financial capital, chemical contamination (contamination of Damask Roses in some areas with residuals of toxins and chemicals), non-participation of private sector, experts insufficient presence, and non-investment in agricultural infrastructure. Furthermore,  the analysis of the intensity of the relationship between the components showed that the challenges of developing Damask Roses cultivation in the province remain unsolved due to the lack of capital and the creation of a vicious circle.  Simultaneous investing in Damask Roses processing industries, extension of replacing  healthy methods in the management of Damask Roses pests and diseases, establishing laws based on authority delegation, sovereignty, and responsibility of target setting to the policies of cultivating Damask Roses, continuous evaluation, and accountability to the bodies independent from "informal groups with influential and powerful members " in the Ministry of Jihad and Agriculture are among the most important suggestions of present research.