Economic Analysis of Criminal Sanction in Drug CrimesA Case Study of Convicts in Mashhad

Criminals often engage in a calculated assessment of the potential gains and risks before committing a crime. This process, akin to a cost-benefit analysis, involves weighing the benefits they anticipate from the criminal act against the potential costs they might incur. Benefit can be Financial Gain: Criminals consider the monetary rewards they expect to receive. Whether it’s stealing valuables, selling drugs, or committing fraud, the lure of financial gain motivates their actions. Emotional Satisfaction also can be another form of benefit. Some criminals derive satisfaction from revenge, power, or thrill-seeking. These psychological benefits can be equally compelling. In the other hand, committing crime has some consequences. The most important one is Risk of Detection; Criminals evaluate the likelihood of getting caught. The higher the risk, the less attractive the crime becomes. The potential penalties are substantial too—fines, imprisonment, or even capital punishment—weigh heavily. The longer the sentence, the greater the cost. Based on this criminal analysis, Policymakers often rely on heavy punishment as a strategy to combat crime, like the same thing Iran`s Criminal Justice System did in order to reduce the drug crime rate. It chose the most serious punishment: execution, but was it effective?

Criminal strictness in drug crimes and the relative retreat of the Iranian legislature in the face of heavy punishments such as death in 2016 require that the issue of the effectiveness of criminal enforcement be examined from the perspective of those convicted of crimes in this area. Therefore, the present research seeks to analyze the economic analysis of criminal enforcement in drug crimes.

This research is descriptive-exploratory in terms of its applied nature and methodology. To assess the economic analysis of punishment by criminals, individuals convicted of drug-related crimes were systematically identified. The statistical population of this study comprises all individuals with a definitive history of drugrelated convictions in the city of Mashhad. Given the lack of precise information on the number of convicts, a sample size of 160 individuals was selected from the accessible population. The data collection tool in this study was a researcher-designed questionnaire, which underwent content and face validity confirmation through expert opinions. Its reliability was calculated using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, resulting in 0.89. For data analysis, various statistical methods such as t-tests, ANOVA, and basic statistics like mean and standard deviation were employed.

Based on findings from convicts’ opinions on drug-related matters, criminals involved in drug crimes perceive the costs of long-term imprisonment and asset forfeiture to be greater than execution. Surprisingly, this contradicts the conventional assumption that the cost of execution outweighs any other crime. Therefore, when assessing the benefits and desirability, it is essential to consider the context and specific circumstances rather than treating criminals as abstract and fixed entities. In practice, the utility versus cost trade-off is evaluated by criminals on a case-by-case basis, accounting for situational factors. Also, statistical analysis showed that with increasing age, level of education and history of committing, attention to economic analysis of punishments is done more accurately.

The main idea behind proponents of deterrence theory is that the threat of punishment serves as a deterrent to potential criminals. This economic perspective analyzes criminal behavior by treating criminals as rational actors who weigh the benefits of committing a crime against the associated costs. If the perceived benefits outweigh the costs significantly, the decision to commit a crime becomes more likely. While the costs of committing a crime extend beyond the direct expenses imposed by the criminal justice system, the most critical factor in these calculations is the certainty of being caught. In a broader context, the concept of deterrence encompasses various actions within the criminal justice system that ultimately lead to punishment. These actions include detecting crimes, apprehending criminals, imposing penalties, and executing sentences. Both the costs related to the criminal justice system and the ordinary costs of crime are considered in this basic model. Importantly, the perception of risk during the evaluation process differs from the general perception of risk. Among the risks associated with detection, punishment, and execution, the relative impact of each varies. Additionally, the levels of risk aversion and risk tolerance among criminals play a significant role. Therefore, prioritizing certain benefits over costs is subjective, and individuals’ satisfaction reflects their mental image of the prioritization. In other words, whether this choice is rational or not depends on a precise understanding of the convict’s information, preferences, and attitude toward risk. Consequently, stating whether this decision is rational or not hinges on these specific factors.