Simulating the Effects of Climate Change on Irrigated Barley (Hordeum vulgare) in Lorestan and Hamedan Provinces

The present research was conducted to simulate the impact of climate change on irrigated barley in Lorestan and Hamadan provinces. For this purpose, nine regions including Aligudarz, Borujerd, Khorramabad, Kuhdasht, Pol-e Dokhtar, Hamedan, Malayer, Nahavand, and Kabudarahang were selected in the two provinces. The APSIM-barley model was employed to simulate the growth and development of irrigated barley. Firstly, the APSIM-barley model was evaluated using two independent field experiments. The first experiment was conducted in Khorramabad to calibrate the crop model; while the second experiment was done in Hamedan to validate the crop model. The future climate was projected using the AgMIP methodology under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the period 2040-2070. The results of the model validation showed that the crop model was able to simulate barley yield and biomass with nRMSE of 16.4% and 13.3%, respectively. Additionally, the results indicated that on average across the study locations, barley grain yield would decrease by 3.8% and 5.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, in Pol-e Dokhtar, barley grain yield is projected to increase by 1.3% and 4.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Based on these findings, adaptation strategies should be considered in the future to prevent the reduction of irrigated barley yield in the studied provinces.