Modeling the distribution of Rutilus kutum (Nordmann, 1840) under climate changes, over the next 30 and 60 years

Natural habitats around the world have suffered a lot of pressure due to the increase in human industrial activities in order to achieve economic-welfare goals, by changing in the climate system, and the consequences of this event include the extinction of species and the reduction of biodiversity on a global scale. In this regard, the evaluation of the threats resulting from the changes created in the ecosystems will be pivotal to their management and conservation. In this study, the distribution of Rutilus kutum was predicted under two optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of 2050 and 2080 by Maxent model. In this study, the set of data collected by the authors and various available scientific sources from a period of 50 years (1970 to 2020 AD) was used. Also, the environmental and climate variables used in the modeling were extracted and prepared from www.worldclim.org.The results showed that the performance of the model in predicting species distribution was excellent (0.946) based on the AUC (Area Under the Curve) criterion. In addition, it is predicted that the distribution of the species is likely to decrease significantly in all years and optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Therefore, considering the importance of the sim species in the food basket and its positive effect on the livelihoods of local communities, reducing its distribution in the future could be considered a threat to food security. In conclusion, the protection of this species requires urgent planning, actionable decisions and effective measures regarding the preservation and restoration of rivers, controlling the negative effects of climate change and efforts to reduce the accelerating factors of this critical phenomenon.