Mechanism of impulse effects of oil price, macroeconomic factors and political effects of embargo on energy market, unemployment, budget deficit and business cycles of the country

This article explains the impact of oil price impulses, macroeconomic factors and the political effects of sanctions on the energy market, unemployment, budget deficit and business periods of the country for the years 1984-2020. Based on the SVAR model estimation results; An impulse from the oil price area increases the production gap by 13% and an impulse from the exchange rate increases the production gap by 8%. The results also show that an impulse from the years of embargo in the country's oil income, the government budget deficit and the unemployment rate increase the production gap by 1, 4 and 32 percent, respectively. Also, based on the results of variance analysis, 65.71% of the production gap is related to oil price impulses, 0.08% is related to foreign exchange impulse, 5.55% is related to the impulse of the sanctions years in the country's oil income, 6.34% is related to the export impulse. Nafti, 14.16 percent was related to budget deficit impulse and 6.24 percent was related to unemployment impulse. Therefore, the gap between production and supply and export of oil in our country does not move in the same direction. It seems that the creation of a suitable theoretical relationship between the discussed variables in our country is more than affected by the current economic policies of the government, it is undergoing fundamental changes in the structure and political and economic conditions. Therefore, the more the impulse effects increase in the country, the amount of investment in the production sector will decrease and it will worsen the country's production situation and cause the production to move away from the main path, so the government's attention to investment in the production and export sectors. It is necessary.