Modeling gas demand of household customers in order to reduce consumption intensity in east Azarbaijan province with system dynamics approach

The purpose of this research, Modelling gas demand of household customers in order to reduce consumption intensity in east Azerbaijan providence with system dynamics modelling.The statistical population of this research is the household consumers of Province. In this research, 79 variables were identified using meta-synthesis methodology, and then using Shannon's entropy, the position and effect of each variable was determined. After analyzing and combining the variables, finally 10 subsystems were identified in the form of 49 variables. Causal diagrams were drawn for the identified subsystems.Then the parameters were estimated and the model was formulated. The key variables affecting the natural gas demand of the population, price, price elasticity, temperature, technical and technological factors, per capita income, social factors, consumption history and advertisements were identified and based on the available information to estimate the functions and preferences and research facilities of the selected variables for stock-Flow model drawing was used. Validity of the model was measured by two methods of retesting behavior and limit states. Based on the model, five were planned: 1) continuation of the status quo, 2) implementation of price policies, 3) creation of a culture for optimal gas consumption, 4) optimization in engine houses of the province, 5) simultaneous application of all consumption reduction policies. The results of the modeling showed that by applying all consumption reduction policies, the demand can be kept at the current level. Based on the scenarios, strategic measures were proposed to reduce and control consumption at three short, medium and long term levels.