Future Study of the Iran's machine-made carpet supply chain: an analysis of the ripple effect antecedents

The supply chain of machine-made carpets has faced many fluctuations in recent years. One of the most important fluctuations is the ripple effect that has been observed in recent years. The ripple effect has had many negative consequences for the machine made carpet supply chain, so future research of possible scenarios in the future is highly necessary and is the main purpose of this study. This study was conducted in the machine-made carpet industry of Iran. The data were collected in 4 stages based on the opinion of experts. Micmac and ScenarioWizard software were used for future research. The results of the interview showed that there are 15 drivers for the ripple effect in the supply chain, of which 12 drivers were selected as important drivers based on the output of Micmac software. Four consistent scenarios for the future of the ripple effect were identified as one favorable scenario (robust supply chain), two unfavorable scenarios (unstable supply chain and shaky supply chain) and one mid-range scenario (astonished supply chain). In order to achieve the desired scenario and prevent unfavorable scenarios, flexibility must be built in the supply chain. This is possible through the use of up-to-date technology, collaboration, and backup facilities.Keywords: supply chain; machine made carpet; ripple effect; future study