Statistical Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Cropping Patterns in Golestan Province: A 25-Year Study

Statistical detection is a method to reveal significant changes that cannot be attributed to natural variations. The agricultural sector heavily relies on climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation, thus demonstrating a higher degree of responsiveness to climate change with increased intensity and speed. Climate change can also influence the cropping patterns and agriculture of a region over a long period. To enhance the quantity and quality of agricultural production in Golestan Province, it is necessary to study the climatic background and precipitation and temperature regimes over a long period (at least 25 years) to examine the trend of changes. Therefore, the Mondal and Papadakis methods were utilized on statistical data from meteorological stations in the province to obtain suitable winter and summer cropping types for Golestan Province. The climatic data used in this research includes monthly average minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures, monthly average absolute minimum and maximum temperatures, and annual average temperature and precipitation from 9 meteorological stations in Golestan Province within the time range of 1990-2018, obtained from the National Meteorological Organization. The results of statistical analysis showed no significant changes in the cropping pattern of the region during the study period (1990-2017), which can be justified by the defined temperature thresholds of the Papadakis model. For instance, the dominant winter cropping pattern was dual-headed barley, which requires the average maximum temperature of the coldest month to be above 10 degrees Celsius, a threshold observed in the region during the statistical period, thus indicating the continued cultivation of this crop in the future. Additionally, the prevalence of maximum temperatures above 20 and 25 degrees Celsius in the region and the prolonged absence of frost during the season are reasons for the stability of dominant summer cropping types in this province.