Scenario-Writing for the Formation of "Construction 4.0" in Iran

The influence of the fourth industrial revolution on the construction industry has led to the introduction of the concept of "Construction 4.0" and the purpose of the present study was to analyze the formation of this phenomenon in Iran in a twenty-year time period through futures study. The present qualitative and descriptive research was designed with an exploratory futures study approach. In order to achieve the objectives of the research, an initial list of key drivers affecting the formation of Construction 4.0 was extracted from research records and written scientific sources, and then, by forming an expert group with the Delphi approach, they were prioritized. In the scenario-writing stage, using the methodology of the Global Business Network (GBN), four scenarios of possible futures in this field were set while creating an intersection between the uncertainties of two key drivers. The prioritization of the identified drivers in the field of creating the phenomenon of Construction 4.0 in Iran indicates that the two key factors in this field are: "Scientific cooperation of the country with the developed world" and "Technological advances in new areas". Quadruple scenarios resulting from the intersection of these two uncertainties were identified with the metaphors of Sea, Spring, Marsh, and River. It is necessary for the policy makers to strengthen scientific and technological interactions with advanced countries in this matter (such as Germany), to support start-up and innovative companies, and focus on strengthening the other identified main drivers.