Analysis of the trend of violent crimes (case study: Mazandaran province from 2016 to 2016)

This research was carried out with the aim of "analyzing the trend of violent crimes in Mazandaran province from 1396 to 1401" and examining the formation trends and measures to deal with violent crimes can definitely help the authorities in controlling this matter.

The current applied research has an exploratory-analytical nature with a combined (qualitative-quantitative) approach. The participants of the qualitative and quantitative part of this research are experts in the fields of information and intelligence police of Mazandaran province. This research has been conducted using semi-structured interview until the narrative saturation is reached and the reliability of the research results has been obtained by measuring the reliability, transmission, verification and reliability.The themes obtained from the qualitative part were converted into a Likert scale questionnaire and after receiving the formal and content validity of the questionnaire, it was distributed among the statistical population and a total of 34 evaluable questionnaires were collected. Cronbach's alpha value was equal to 0.950, which indicates the validity of the questionnaire. The data were analyzed to rank the effective factors using the Friedman test with SPSS software.

The findings indicate that there are 16 major trends and 63 main trends in 9 areas that can affect violent crimes in Mazandaran province.

Violent crimes in the last 5 years in Mazandaran province include shooting, armed robbery, robbery, murder and stabbing. After analyzing the trends affecting the commission of violent crimes, the highest score belongs to the "political environment", among the macro trend related to "increasing social issues" and in the trend section related to "increasing pressure on the security custodians".