Analysis of the Effective Key Factors on Sustainable Livelihoods Using Foresight Approach (Case Study: Maneh and Samalqan County)

The weakening of livelihood assets of local communities and poverty in the general sense is one of the fundamental challenges in the world, especially in developing societies. Due to the special economic and environmental conditions of the country, Iran is not exempt from this and many of its regions and settlements are facing livelihood challenges. Because the country of Iran has different conditions in its different regions due to the inclusion of a wide range of human and environmental conditions; The way of dealing with the factors affecting the livelihood of the households living in its areas is different from each other and it is necessary to take appropriate measures according to the specific conditions governing each one, which requires the identification of the main factors affecting the livelihood.The current research method is of applied type and using the method of future research, interviews were conducted with key people in the settlements of Maneh township (118 settlements) in the form of inductive research and using the fundamental theory method, cross effects analysis, and Mic Mac software have been analyzed and evaluated in a combined way.The research results indicate the unstable conditions of livelihood assets in the residential areas of Maneh. However, various factors are involved in the destabilization of the livelihood structure of the city. However, among these factors, those directly related to humans and their activities have had the most impact, and since most of these factors have high uncertainty, the way to deal with them should be appropriate to the changing conditions.