The Impact of the Ukraine War on Central Asia: The Rise of China or the Strengthening of Multilateralism

The Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 caused changes in the international system and blackened the balance of power prospects, especially in a region like Central Asia where Russia has a strong role and influence. Factors such as Russia's military conflict in Ukraine, and this country's focus on its ability to disrupt equations in its favor, which subsequently causes changes in its national and foreign policies, open paths for new questions. Such as whether the war in Ukraine and its consequences have caused Russia's role to diminish, or we can even say Russia's hegemony (especially from a security point of view) in Central Asia? In this case, is China, another influential and powerful actor in the region, going to fill the vacuum of Russian influence? Or will the countries of the region take advantage of the opportunity this time and highlight other regional actors such as India, Turkey, Iran, or trans regional actors such as the European Union in their foreign policy? In order to answer these questions, this research has tried to investigate the variables of China and Russia's sources of power and influence in Central Asia, and their changes after the Ukraine war. After evaluating the prospects of challenges and the opportunities created by this war for the influence of China and Russia in this region will provide scenarios for the future situation in Central Asia and the influential actors in the region.