The effects of climate change on the distribution pattern and habitat suitability of the Azerbaijan lizard Darevskia r. raddei (Boettger, 1892) (Lizards: Lasertidae)

The awareness of the distribution of species is very important in their conservation. Of 35 species lizards of the genus Darevskia Arribas, 1997 (Lacertidae), ten species are documented from Iran. The Azerbaijani lizard D. raddei (Boettger, 1892) include three recognized subspecies D. r. chaldoranensis, D. r. vanensis and D. r. raddei; Darevskia r. raddei is distributed in Ardabil, East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan Provinces. In the study, used the Maximum Entropy approach based on climatic variables, modeled the potential distribution areas and determined the suitable habitats in the Last Interglacial (LIG), and mid-Holocene (MH), the contemporary as well as predicated distribution in the future (2080) under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gas concentration levels for the subspecies. Precipitation of the warmest quarter of the year, mean temperature of the coldest quarter of the year and seasonal temperature were the most important factors in simulated the distribution pattern of the subspecies in the LIG and MH respectively. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter of the year, seasonal temperature, and isothermality variables constructed important contributions to the contemporary distribution it. Precipitation of the warmest quarter of the year, precipitation of the coldest quarter of the year and isothermality were the most important factors affecting species distribution for the future. It seems over time, climatic change has been responsible for destruction of habitats the subspecies, although human activity in the fragmentation, destruction and change of habitats cannot be ignored.