Dynamics of urban growth in mid-sized cities using census data

Currently, 56% of the global population, reside in cities, and this urbanization trend is predicted to result in a more than doubling of the urban population by 2050. Similarly, mid-sized Indian cities have exhibited rapid urban growth in recent decades. However, a holistic study focusing on the temporal dynamics of urban growth in all the mid-sized Indian cities is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the urban growth pattern across eighty-eight mid-sized Indian cities with the help of Census data from 1971-2011. This research, utilizing a quantitative approach, investigates the relationship between economic growth and urban expansion in selected cities. The cities are categorized based on the Gross State Domestic Product of respective states, and the study evaluates changes in municipal areas and demographic growth patterns through the decadal urban expansion rate and decadal population growth rate. The urban growth character is further analyzed by dividing the population growth rate by the decadal urban expansion rate, with a value less than 1 indicating inefficient land utilization. This comprehensive methodology aims to provide insights into the dynamics of urban growth and its correlation with economic development. The results revealed that inefficient land utilization for urban growth during 1971-2011 had occurred in thirteen cities from the states with higher Gross State Domestic Product and three cities among the states with lower Gross State Domestic Product. Overall, the mid-sized Indian cities, such as Ajmer (0.65), Solapur (0.67), Asansol (0.79), Mangalore (0.83), Jhansi (0.84), Nellore (0.85), Belgaum (0.86), Thrissur (0.86), and Bareilly (0.89) exhibited the lowest PU values during 1971-2011.The major drivers for urban growth in mid-sized Indian cities are government policies and schemes, industrial growth, rise in Gross State Domestic Product, climatic conditions and terrains, social profile, transportation, and infrastructure. Overall, there has been inefficient land utilization in several cities, particularly those from states with varying levels of Gross State Domestic Product. Noteworthy cities like Ajmer, Solapur, and Belgaum consistently demonstrated efficient land utilization, reflected in their lower Population-to-Urban Expansion (PU) values. The study emphasizes the intricate influences shaping urban growth, encompassing government policies, industrial development, economic factors, climate, social dynamics, and infrastructure. Future research endeavors could further delve into the specific impact of these factors on urban expansion, employing longitudinal analyses, and explore the socio-economic ramifications of efficient or inefficient land utilization, contributing to more informed urban planning and policy formulation.