The Future of Spatial Development Strategic Urban Tourism in Kish Island Sustainable Development Approach

Given natural, historical, and cultural attractions, cities are considered important tourist destinations. Urban tourism development brings positive and negative economic, social, cultural, and environmental impacts. This issue becomes particularly significant concerning sustainable development. Currently, the development of sustainable tourism plays such a role in the economic, social, and cultural development of the countries that economists consider it the engine of the country's development. The development of tourism in the world requires the efficiency of the management system, the strengthening of the infrastructure, and the improvement of the necessary capacities. One of the most important factors in the development of tourism in any region is how it is managed. This research aimed to investigate the future of spatial-strategic urban tourism development of Kish Island with a sustainable development approach and to compare the scenario writing method, SWOT analysis, and SOAR strategic model. The research method was exploratory and descriptive-analytical, which was conducted using library and field studies resulting from interviews and questionnaires (in two stages using the Delphi method). The sample included 54 officials and experts of tourism, urban planning and development and civil engineering of Kish Free Zone Organization, professors and experts of other disciplines related to the urban and tourism field, and 100 tourists and residents. SPSS software, one-sample T-test and ANOVA were used to analyze data. To determine the drivers of development and key factors, first 45 of the indicators that showed more than 60% uncertainty were selected, and then 30 were identified as influential factors by forming a panel of experts. For data analysis, interaction effects analysis method was used in MicMac software. The results indicated the instability of variables within the system. After identifying the influencing, dual, independent, and dependent factors, three scenarios for the sustainable development of Kish Island were developed based on the dependent factors, which included efficient tourism management, public participation, job creation, and income generation. The scenarios were compared with the strategies derived from the SWOT analysis and the SOAR strategic model. Finally, the point density method in GIS software was used to analyze the tourism space of Kish Island.